Yesterday early morning news of growing optimism from Pakistan on talks with Iran helped push oil and yields lower, providing a tailwind for equities. Later in the day, reports of an emerging agreement between Iran and Oman for a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz added to those moves. That helped mitigate deteriorating US-Canada trade relations (aka Loonie Toons). Equity gains were modest, however. Despite crude falling 4% the S&P 500 rose only 0.3% and the equal-weight had a slight loss. The Russell 2000 outperformed, gaining 0.5%. Yields fell ~5bp across the curve. Tech and the AI trade led, bouncing after declines on Monday. Energy, Staples, and Industrials were the only sectors lower.

A quiet start to the week was punctuated this morning with a slew of economic data, headlined by PCE. Core was inline and the overall calculus didn't change too much as far as the Fed or path of the economy. Ahead of the data S&P futures traded flat for most of the overnight session. Futures rose modestly right after the prints but then pulled back and the S&P opened slightly lower. We returned to unchanged and have bounced around there since. Once again we're trading in a tight range. The equal-weight index is outperforming slightly, modestly in the green while the Russell 2000 is lagging slightly.

Oil was lower but Putin commentary took it higher and yields have backed up. Energy is a leading sector today. Industrials are also leading. Utilities round out the modest leaderboard today. On the downside are Comm Services, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare. Meta is trading up 1% after reaching an agreement to settle claims related to the addiction and data collection of its platform. All of this as we await NVDA earnings tonight.