Good morning and Happy Friday. Huge congratulations to the US Women’s Hockey Team on their overtime win to take home the Gold yesterday. It was a helluva game with Canada and Megan Keller’s game winner is now legendary. The US Men’s team plays Slovakia at 3:10pm today while Canada takes on Finland a little after the Opening Bell in the semifinals, which is also when we could potentially get a ruling from the Supreme Court on the IEEPA tariff case as they get back into session.

Equity futures faded from their early morning highs ahead of the data today- PCE, GDP as well as options expiration- but started to reverse back up just before the print. The hotter PCE and softer GDP sent futures to their lows, however, but we’re trying to bounce as we near the Open. Both headline and core December PCE were a touch higher than expected (both at 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% estimate) and up from the prior month. Note that this is December data, so it’s not a robust snapshot of current conditions. Goods inflation drove the increase and point to tariff flow-through. Preliminary Q4 GDP missed by a sizable amount: 1.4% vs 3.0%, expectedly falling from Q3’s 4.4% rate. The government shutdown appears to have had a large impact, as government spending contributed about -1%. Consumer spending was solid but stepped down from last quarter. Treasury yields were a few basis points lower before the prints but jumped back to their highest levels after the data, currently flat to up 2bp. The US Dollar Index hasn’t moved much, currently a bit higher.

Crude is slightly lower, pausing after this week’s 5% gain as the Iran situation remains front and center. Metals are higher, looking to end the week in the green after moving sideways for most of it. Bitcoin and Ether are flat to down with both testing their 8-day average after consolidating off lows for most of February.