Yesterday we saw the latest example of the fog of uncertainty that surrounds this conflict when Iran state media said they obtained the draft Memorandum of Understanding, followed by the White House saying it was a “complete fabrication”. Oil prices moved lower on the initial headlines and despite the rebuttal never really bounced back. Major US indices all ended the session around unchanged. Consumer sectors moved higher, while Energy and Financials were the main underperformers. Tech also pulled back modestly with Zscaler’s 30% decline pulling down cybersecurity names.

Today is kind of a replay of the fog just in reverse. Overnight the US and Iran exchanged some fire but US officials continued to say that the ceasefire was still in place. Futures were modestly lower overnight but improved after an economic data dump this morning which included PCE, that was slightly better than feared, helping rates pull back slightly. Shortly after the open Axios reported that an agreement had been reached on a 60-day MOU to extend the ceasefire and begin nuclear negotiations. The story said President Trump asked for a couple of days to “think about it” while Iran’s Supreme leader refuted accepting the terms which included the “unrestricted” opening of the Strait. Equities have rallied on the headlines while oil prices have reversed the overnight bounce and are testing yesterday’s lows again. As we head to print, the S&P 500 and Russell 2k are up just over 0.5%. Tech is outperforming with the NYSE 100 up >1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is hovering around unchanged.