Happy One Year Anniversary of Liberation Day! Yes, a year ago today in the Rose Garden President Trump unveiled his giant tariff cards displaying nosebleed tariff rates on nations around the world. We’ve come so far! Markets are closed tomorrow, though the monthly jobs report will be published. We could see elevated volatility as investors figure out how much risk they want to hold over a long weekend.

Yesterday equities followed up on Tuesday’s strong gains, but ended off the highs as news continued to produce conflicting signals, ahead of President Trump’s speech Wednesday night. He largely kept to comments that he and others in the administration have previously made. The lack of a defined exit strategy, along with the lingering questions about the Strait of Hormuz, led to futures selling off overnight and crude jumping. The S&P 500 was down as much as 1.5%, but then saw yet another rally on hopes of de-escalation after headlines hit that Iran was drafting plans with Oman for traffic in the Strait. The S&P is around flat with the equal-weight, small and mid-cap indexes all trading right around it. I had to triple check it, but the index is up 3% this week, which would end the steak of weekly losses at 5. Small and mid caps have kept pace with large caps.

Global yields were volatile. UK gilts and German bunds were up 10 and 5bp, respectively before erasing much of that after turning lower as equities turned higher. Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve. The USD Dollar Index is moving back up to ~100. Weekly jobless claims came in below estimates keeping any concerns about a weakening economy at bay. The modest equity decline is interesting in light of the strong move higher in crude. Brent jumped from $100 to $105 last night, and extended higher throughout the morning and is near its best levels. US Nat gas is marginally lower, Europe up 5%. Precious metals are under some pressure. Gold is trying to hold its 100d ma ~$4640. Crypto is also lower as Ether tries to hold $2k.

Have a Happy Easter and Passover if you celebrate, and if not, enjoy time with friends and family anyway, perhaps while watching the Men’s and Women’s Final Fours.