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July 7, 2025 at 1:00 p.m. EST
On Sunday evening as travelers were returning from their summer pilgrimage, futures opened modestly lower with the trade deadline quickly approaching. Administration officials said that letters to trading partners would start going out today with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying they would be “pretty standard”. Suggesting that after the pleasantries of “Thank you for trading with America,” there would be a new tariff rate that could “boomerang” back to Liberation Day levels, if no deal is made. He also said his mailbox is overflowing with new proposals and that he expects several deals to be announced before the deadline. We’re speculating that all these deliveries could be a boon for carrier earnings in Q3, assuming we’re not using our fleet of pigeons. The new tariff rates would be set to go into effect on August 1st, which allows some more time for negotiations. As we were wrapping up President Trump publicly released the letters to Japan and South Korea putting tariff rates at 25% if demands weren't met.
The six trading days between April 3rd and April 9th marked a period of unprecedented volatility in US equity markets. All five trading days landed in the top ten highest volume days in history, including three distinct record-setting days capped by a record 30.98 billion shares on April 9th as the S&P 500 rallied 9.5%. The NYSE Group handled over 1 trillion messages on multiple days, a new all-time high. This time period provided...
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