Good morning and Happy Jobs Day, maybe. US equity futures were trading around unchanged levels earlier this morning before an FT article said Gulf nations would suspend exports in a few weeks if conditions in the region didn’t change. Other news has noted the Iranian regime’s ability to withstand strikes on its leadership. That took futures lower heading into the payrolls data.

The payrolls numbers came in very weak, unexpectedly declining 92k compared to estimates for a gain of 59k, and significantly cutting in to last month’s 126k additions. It’s an ugly print with messy details. Healthcare and Social Assistance, which have been driving most of the recent gains, had a big reversal, going from 116.4k additions in January to 18.6k losses in February. That delta made up more than the entire overall decline. From the household survey, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% back to 4.4% while the participation rate fell to 62.0% from 62.1% (revised from 62.5%). Updated population estimates had a significant impact on that part, accounting for the revision.

Futures, already down around 0.5%, fell another ~0.5% on the jobs news. Treasury yields initially fell but have bounced back to the pre-release levels. That may have been partially due to President Trump’s post that “there will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER”, which has also extended the S&P losses, and we’re looking at around a 1.5% decline at the Open currently. The weak jobs data adds to the Fed’s difficult position regarding the path of monetary policy.

Brent crude was higher before all the commotion above and extended to the upside, on track for a >20% gain this week. Several proposals have been discussed to contain prices, including SPR releases (Trump had said he wasn’t looking at that though), Treasury intervening in oil futures market, and waiving fuel-blend requirements. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US would give Indian refiners a 30-day waiver to continue to purchase Russian crude. Meanwhile Bessent is considering asking China to reduce their oil purchases from US adversaries like Russia. Gold was trading lower but jumped on the news before pulling back just as quickly, currently modestly higher. Bitcoin is under pressure.