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Today’s Stock Market
Michael P. Reinking, CFA & Eric Criscuolo
June 17, 2026 at 5:30 p.m. EST
There's a new sheriff in town. In a bloodless transfer of power, Kevin Warsh assumed the Fed chair role from Jerome Powell and quickly put his stamp on things. A unanimous vote by the FOMC left the target rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. As expected, the easing bias was removed from the statement and it was shortened dramatically (130 words from 237), very to the point and left some room for interpretation.
Rate assumptions resolved hawkishly. Nine of eighteen committee members now expect at least one hike during the remainder of the year. Six expect two. There were zero for both in the last plot. Only one saw a cut, down from 12.
The 2y rate jumped 15bp at its highs over the course of the statement and presser. The S&P was trading around unchanged heading into the statement release and dropped right after it. The index recovered to its pre-statement level during the first half of the Q&A session but then retreated to the lows in the second half when short-term yields extended higher.
Taking the eraser to the Statement and removal of forward guidance provided a lead-in to potentially dramatic changes to how the Fed operates overall. To that end, Warsh announced the creation of five task forces that will take a "fresh look" at things and make recommendations for changes. We could be looking at a very different Fed in a few months.
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