The beginning of this week was following up on last week’s quietness. The S&P 500 opened up 0.1% but fell modestly into the red while trading in a 25-point range. However the index has begun to move lower, currently at session lows after Friday’s low failed to hold. The US-Iran ceasefire is scheduled to end today, if it ever really was in force, and there have been varying reports about its status. A senior Iranian official warned of an escalation in the Strait and across the region if diplomacy fails.

Breadth is weak today with only 3/11 sectors higher as the market sifts through the flood of 13F filings. Energy (oil up), Industrials (AI/energy infra, freight) are leading. Tech is flat to slightly higher. Software is under pressure, but semis are mostly higher and DRAM +6% while the mega-cap weakness continues. Comm Services (mega caps), and consumer groups are lower. Staples is a sea of red with beverages under pressure. Discretionary is also seeing broad declines with travel/leisure and retailers some of the hardest hit.

The long-end is continuing to push higher and steepen the curve. The 30-year yield has broken above its YTD high and breached 5.30%. The 2-year meanwhile is about flat as rate hike expectations for the September meeting hover around 33%.

Brent crude is extending gains, pressuring equities. Metals are trading higher, helped by Dollar weakness today. Gold is up, copper is flat, pulling back from its HOD and continues to consolidate its gains from late June amidst tight global supplies, while China macro data disappoints. Crypto is recouping some of last week’s losses. The administration is expected to meet with crypto and prediction market executives on Wednesday.